Modern predictive models of survival of patients with end-stages liver diseases

• Yu.E. Lurye
• Metelin A.V.
• A.E. Kuznetsova

Abstract

This article presents a review of actual mathematical models of end-stage liver disease severity assessment, ways they were designed, their diagnostic and predictive values. Integrative assessment of organ dysfunction based on statistically significant parameters allows to develop more advanced clinical tools to predict and prevent complications after liver transplantation. The aim is to present to professional community perspective methods of integrative assessment of organ dysfunction on the example of mathematical analysis of hepatocellular insufficiency criteria. Conclusion. Consideration of world experience in the development of modern models of critical organ dysfunction will allow optimizing of organ transplantation timing and regimens of preoperative conditioning.

Keywords:PELD, MELD, Child-Pugh, mathematical models of a disease, organ transplantation, liver transplantation, assessment of weight of patients with hepatocellular insufficiency, cirrhosis, metaanalysis, conditioning of bodies

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